FX Expected Value (EV) Checker

Calculate expected value per trade from win rate, RR, risk fraction and costs (R-based / account %).

Inputs

Win rate p (0–1 / 0–100%)

RR (win:loss)

Risk fraction f (%)

Fees (round-trip bps)

Slippage (round-trip bps)

Conclusion

-0.03R

Expected value (account)：-0.06% / trade

❌ Negative EV (mathematically losing)

Costs (R-based)

Cost0.03R

Fees (bps)5

Slippage (bps)1

Risk fraction f2%

Costs in bps are converted to R using risk fraction f (smaller f makes costs heavier).

Breakeven

Breakeven win rate51.5%

Breakeven RR1.06

Breakeven conditions including costs.

How to use

• If EV < 0, the strategy is not worth testing

• Small EV can easily turn negative due to costs and execution noise