Balsara's Risk of Ruin Simulator
Estimate ruin probability based on win rate, R/R, risk per trade, and number of trials (client-side calculation). 'Ruin' here means capital falling below 20%.
Input Conditions
0-1 or 0-100% (e.g., 0.55 / 55%)
Current Risk of Ruin
0%
Ruin Threshold: Less than 20% of initial capital
✅ Acceptable (If assumptions are maintained)
Input Conditions
Win Rate (p)0.5
R/R (Reward:Risk)1
Risk per Trade f (%)2.0%
Number of Trials (N)200
Reference
Kelly Criterion: 0%
* Approx: Loss-streak based, independent trials, fixed f. For educational use only.
Risk of Ruin vs. Risk Rate
Risk of Ruin vs Risk Fraction f (other parameters fixed)
Approximation: losing-streak model, independent trials, fixed f. Hover to see exact values.